Voters in Every Congressional District Oppose Cuts to Medicaid
Republicans in Congress are currently considering a budget package that would include devastating cuts to Medicaid. From March 28 to April 14, Data for Progress conducted a series of surveys to assess voters’ attitudes toward Medicaid funding levels. Nationwide, 50% of voters want Congress to increase funding for Medicaid, 38% want funding to be kept as it is, and 8% want to cut funding.
We additionally tested voters’ attitudes on funding levels for home and community-based services (HCBS), which would also be under threat with the GOP budget package. Fifty-two percent of voters nationally want to increase funding for HCBS, while 38% want to keep current levels of funding, and only 5% believe funding should be cut.
The surveys were then modeled using a synthetic area weighting technique to estimate results at the congressional district level.
The model finds that in every congressional district in the U.S., less than 15% of voters support cuts to Medicaid. This same pattern is true for HCBS funding.
The map below displays the percentage of voters in each congressional district who believe Medicaid funding should be cut and the percentage who believe HCBS funding should be cut (you can view each by using the dropdown menu below).
Methodology
To provide estimates of opinion at the congressional district level, we apply a synthetic area weighting technique which constructs a policy support score by first modeling and then applying geographic level iterative proportional fitting, or raking, to ensure congressional level representativeness.
We first fit a regression and score respondents to estimate respondents’ support for a given policy using nationally representative survey data using only individual characteristics such as gender, race, education, age, and vote history as predictors. We assume any residuals from that modeling exercise can be explained by the geographic characteristics of the congressional district of that individual. As such, we apply geographic level iterative proportional fitting on the modeled data to ensure geographic representativeness using key features of the district such as voting history, income, educational attainment, and racial makeup.
Final results represent an estimated share of the likely voters in a congressional district that would select the survey response if they were to be presented with the question.
Note: An earlier version of this graphic incorrectly showed 2022 congressional district boundaries on the map, some of which have changed since then, while correctly displaying 2024 congressional district data. The graphic has been updated to reflect the 2024 congressional district boundaries.
Survey Questions
Lawmakers in Congress are considering funding levels for each of the following.
For each, please say if you think we should increase or cut its federal funding, or if we should keep federal funding at its current level.
— Medicaid
We should increase federal funding for this.
We should keep funding at current levels.
We should cut federal funding for this.
Don’t know
2. Home and community based services (HCBS) allow aging adults and people with disabilities to live independently and receive care services in their homes and communities, like helping someone bathe and dress or providing transportation.
Do you think we should increase or cut federal funding for home and community-based services, or should we keep federal funding at its current level?
We should increase federal funding for this.
We should keep funding at current levels.
We should cut federal funding for this.
Don’t know
